WrestleMania 41: The big business questions for WWE’s Las Vegas showcase

WrestleMania week is officially underway. But will the event be a commercial smash for TKO?

Drawing a massive stadium audience is second nature for WWE at these major shows, but there are still some big business questions hanging over this year’s event, particularly given the changed landscape following the TKO merger and the massive Netflix deal.

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Here are the questions I’ll be keeping an eye on this weekend to see whether WrestleMania 41 really pays off for WWE and TKO.

Does The Rock show up?

Whether you know him as “The People’s Champ” or “The Final Boss,” there’s no denying that Dwayne Johnson is seriously big business for WWE (hence TKO inviting him to join its board of directors in 2024).

For understandable reasons, WWE was quick to credit The Rock’s involvement for helping the company smash the gate record at last year’s WrestleMania XL. Triple H struck a similar note after last month’s Elimination Chamber, suggesting that the involvement of the world’s highest-grossing actor was a big part of that event’s success.

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All of that begs the obvious question: Will “The Great One” show up this weekend? While The Rock has been absent since the events in Toronto, we’ve seen time and again how quickly these things can turn. Obviously Triple H and Nick Khan will have been prepared to move mountains if they can make it happen. But will the stars align?

We may have our eyes on John Cena and Cody Rhodes, but we shouldn’t let that distract us from the elephant in the room. If The Rock doesn’t make ‘Mania, it will be a big disappointment for WWE and TKO.

Does the Vegas gamble pay off?

We know from Nick Khan’s previous comments that WWE sees massive potential in Las Vegas. Given that it didn’t have a major stadium until five years ago, Sin City hasn’t been on the WrestleMania radar for much of the modern era, although it did of course host SummerSlam 2021, and the smaller Money in the Bank event in 2022.

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Will the event beat last year’s ‘Mania in Philadelphia, where the company reportedly pocketed some $38.5 million in gate revenue? That will be the big question when the dust settles on the main event. WWE tends to be coy about revealing exact figures, but it should be pretty clear if WrestleMania 41 undershoots last year’s numbers.

Of course, it isn’t just TKO who will have high expectations for this weekend. The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority has apparently shelled out $5 million for the right to host the event, and will expect a return on that investment. There were some reports earlier this year that the Super Bowl was a duff bet for Vegas. But will ‘Mania fare better?

How does the TKO strategy play out?

TKO’s president Mark Shapiro has been pretty transparent about the group’s plans to squeeze extra revenue out of WWE and UFC fans by giving them “super access” to the action through all sorts of special perks and privileges that come with their own price tag.

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In some ways, this is nothing new. WWE has been partnering with On Location (now part of TKO) for three years to offer premium ticket packages combining VIP meets and ringside seats. But WrestleMania 41 looks like a big escalation of that strategy, given the number of spinoff and VIP events taking place under the TKO/WWE umbrella.

As well as the Roast of WrestleMania and a special club night (WrestleMania After Dark) at the FontaineBleau, you also have some brunch meet-and-greets at Brewdog, plus the WWE World exhibition at the Convention Center. There have been reports of On Location offering a special lunch with John Cena, with spots going for the princely sum of $25,000 each.

In some ways, this is the next phase of the whole “two-night PLE” gambit, which has allowed WWE to increase its gate revenue for WrestleMania. Adding a third night would obviously be ludicrous. But if you can add a sizable revenue bump by running lots of lucrative side events? That’s clearly good for the bottom line.

Of course, whether WWE can pull it off or not is the big question. And this weekend should be a major test of that whole strategy.

How well does it do on Netflix?

While WWE PLEs are still on Peacock in the U.S., Netflix has the broadcast rights to several of the major international audiences, including the UK, Canada, Australia and Mexico.

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Just over three months into the Netflix deal, the consensus among analysts appears to be that the viewing figures have been good but not great. While the big focus has been on “WWE Raw” (the only WWE show to be broadcast on Netflix in the United States), the WrestleMania 41 numbers should give a big insight into how well things are doing internationally.

If there’s one country to keep an eye on, it’s India, where WWE broadcast rights just transferred to Netflix on April 1. The world’s most populous country is seriously hot for professional wrestling, with WWE’s weekly shows typically drawing almost double the audience they get in the States.

As luck would have it, India is also a big growth market for Netflix, which has 10 million subscribers (according to independent analysts) in a country of more than 1.4 billion people. Given the popularity of pro-wrestling with Indian fans, Netflix may well be depending on WWE to help improve that number.